Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Avijit Dey

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: (020) 25904546 (O)

Fax

: (020) 25865142

Email ID

: avijit[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon

Academic Records

Degree	University	Year	Stream
Ph.D.	Savitribai Phule Pune University	2022	Atmospheric And Space Sciences
M.Sc.	Pondicherry University	2012	Physics
B.Sc.(Hons)	University of Calcutta	2010	Physics

Research

Intra-seasonal Oscillation of Indian Summer Monsoon

Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Extended range prediction

Awards & Honors

Award Name	Awarded By	Awarded For	Year
Certificate of Merit-2024	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune	Outstanding contribution to Weather and Climate Science	2024
30th Biennial MAUSAM Award	Quarterly Research Journal MAUSAM	-	2018-2019
INSPIRE Scholarship	Department of Science & Technology (DST), Govt. of India	For being in the top 1% in School leaving examination	2011

Scientific Careers

Year	Designation	Institute
2026-Present	Scientist E	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2022-2025	Scientist D	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2018-2021	Scientist C	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2014-2017	Scientist B	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
2012-2013	Trainee Scientist	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Research Highlight

Real-time subseasonal prediction of Indian monsoon 2022 with emphasis on east-west rainfall asymmetry

During ISM 2022, most regions of India received above normal rainfall, while below-normal rainfall was observed in the eastern parts, particularly over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The real-time performance of a recently developed multi-physics multi-ensemble prediction system is evaluated for its ability to predict the spatio-temporal rainfall variability during the ISM 2022. The role of extra-tropical intrusions was investigated, which were associated with the pronounced east-west rainfall asymmetry over India.

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Awards and Honors

Qualified the Graduate Aptitude Test in Engineering (GATE) in 2012, Physics.
Qualified the CSIR-NET in 2012, Physics.

Member of renowned society:

Life Member, India Meteorological Society

Research Gate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Avijit-Dey

Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0QY22BgAAAAJ&hl=en

ORCID: https://orcid.org/my-orcid?orcid=0000-0002-5655-4454

Research papers published in peer-reviewed journals

2026

33. H.B. Amat, S.U.L. Kandasamy, Avijit Dey, D.K.Swain, A.K.Sahai, K. Ashok, Evaluating the IITM-CFSv2 extended-range daily rainfall hindcast skills for the seasonal Kharif rice yield estimation of Warangal district, using the DSSAT crop-growth model. J Earth Syst Sci 135, 6 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-025-02709-9

2025

32. Waje S., Joseph S., Phani M.K.R., Sahai A.K., Dey Avijit, Mandal Raju, Role of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in modulating subseasonal to seasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 63: 248, June 2025, DOI:10.1007/s00382-025-07738-0, 1-14

31. Avijit Dey, Mahesh P. Kalshetti, S. Joseph, R. Mandal, M. Kaur,R. Phani, Shubham Waje, A. K. Sahai. Real-time subseasonal prediction of Indian monsoon 2022 with emphasis on east-west rainfall asymmetry, Climate Dynamics, 63, 232 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07700-0

2024

30. R. Mandal, S. Joseph, S. Waje, A. Chaudhary, Avijit Dey, M. Kalshetti & A. K. Sahai. Heat waves in India: patterns, associations, and subseasonal prediction skill. Climate Dynamics, 63, 42 (December 2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07539-x

29. M. M. Nageswararao, S. Joseph, R. Mandal, V. Tallapragada, J. Akhter, Avijit Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, R. Phani, A. K. Sahai, The role of antecedent southwest summer monsoon rainfall on the occurrence of premonsoon heat waves over India in the present global warming era, Discover Environment (November 2024) 2:127 https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-024-00166-7

2023

28. M. Kaur, S. Joseph, R. Phani, A. K. Sahai, Avijit Dey, R. Mandal, Impact of genesis conditions on regional simulations of extreme rainfall: A convection parameterization sensitivity study, MAUSAM, 74, 2 (April, 2023), 467-482 https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i2.5983

27. Mandal R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Dey Avijit, Phani M.K.R., Pattanaik D. R., Kaur M., Karmakar N., Diagnostics and real-time extended range prediction of cold waves over India, Climate Dynamics, Online, January 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06666-1, 1-19

26. Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Martin G.M., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Phani M.K.R., Evaluation and comparison of the subseasonal prediction skill of Indian summer monsoon in IITM CFSv2 and UKMO GloSea5, Climate Dynamics, Online, January 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06650-1, 1-14

2022

25. Karmakar N., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Kaur M., Phani R., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Northward propagation of convection over the Indian region in multiphysics multimodel ensemble, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Online, November 2022, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4404, 1-16

24. Kaur M., Sahai A.K., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 58, February 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05926-2, 669–690

23. D. R. Pattanaik, Ashish Alone, Praveen Kumar, R. Phani, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey, Extended-range forecast of monsoon at smaller spatial domains over India for application in agriculture. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 147, 451–472 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03827-2

22. Avijit Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, M. Kaur, R. Mandal, R. Phani, A. K. Sahai, D. R. Pattanaik, The intraseasonal fluctuation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 148, 819–831 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03970-4

2021

21. S. Saranya Ganesh, S. Abhilash, S. Joseph, Manpreet Kaur, A. Dey, R. Mandal, R. Phani, R. Chattopadhyay, D. R. Pattanaik and A. K. Sahai, A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework, Mausam, 72, 1 (January 2021), 57-76.

20. Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Phani R., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Frontiers in Climate, 3: 655919, May 2021, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.655919, 1-11

19. Amat H.B., Pradhan M., Tejavath C.T., Dey Avijit, Rao Suryachandra A., Sahai A.K., Ashok K., Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif rice crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 144, May 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6, 917-929

18. D. R. Pattanaik, Raju Mandal, R. Phani, Avijit Dey, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and M. Mohapatra, Large Scale Features Associated with Excess Monsoon Rainfall over India during 2019 and the Real-time Extended Range Forecast, Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 1275–1297 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y

17. J. Akhter, R. Mandal, R. Chattopadhyay, S Joseph, Avijit Dey, M.M.Nageswararao, D.R. Pattanaik, A.K.Sahai, Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 145, 1089–1100 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w

16. Lekshmi S., Chattopadhyay R., Kaur M., Joseph S., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Sahai A.K., Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, October 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03818-3, 1-11

2020

15. Suryachandra A. Rao, B. N. Goswami, A. K. Sahai, E. N. Rajagopal, P. Mukhopadhyay, M. Rajeevan, S. Nayak, L. S. Rathore, S. S. C., Shenoi, K. J. Ramesh, R. S. Nanjundiah, M. Ravichandran, A. K. Mitra, D. S. Pai, S. K. R. Bhowmik, A. Hazra, S. Mahapatra, S. K. Saha, H. S. Chaudhari, S. Joseph, P. Sreenivas, S. Pokhrel, P. A. Pillai, R. Chattopadhyay, M. Deshpande, R. P. M. Krishna, Renu S. Das, V. S. Prasad, S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, R. Krishnan, S. Kumar, D. A. Ramu, S. S. Reddy, A. Arora, T. Goswami, A. Rai, A. Srivastava, M. Pradhan, S. Tirkey, M. Ganai, R. Mandal, A. Dey, S. Sarkar, S. Malviya, A. Dhakate, K. Salunke, and Parvinder Maini, MONSOON MISSION A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(12), 2509–2532, January 2020, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1

14. Manpreet Kaur, R. Phani Murali Krishna, Susmitha Joseph, Avijit Dey, Raju Mandal, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Atul Kumar Sahai, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Sukumarapillai Abhilash, Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones, Atmospheric Science Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.971

13. Avijit Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai, R. Mandal, S. Joseph, R. Phani and D. R. Pattanaik, MJO Prediction Skill Using IITM Extended Range Prediction System and Comparison with ECMWF S2S, Pure and Applied Geophysics. 177, 5067–5079 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02487-z

12. A. K. Sahai, Raju Mandal, Susmitha Joseph, Shubhayu Saha, Pradip Awate, Somenath Dutta, Avijit Dey, Rajib Chattopadhyay, R. Phani, D. R. Pattanaik and Sunil Despande, Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters, Scientific Reports, 10, 14741 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6

11. D. R. Pattanaik, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani Muralikrishna, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey, Active-Break Transitions of Monsoon over India as Predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles, Pure and applied Geophysics. 177, 4391–4422 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2

2019

10. R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Abhilash S, R. Mandal, Avijit Dey, R. Phani, S. Ganesh, M. Kaur, D.R. Pattanaik and A.K. Sahai, Understanding the intraseasonal variability over Indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system, MAUSAM, 70, 1 (January 2019), 31-56

9. D. R. Pattanaik, A. K. Sahai, Raju Mandal, R. Phani, A. Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Amar Deep Tiwari and Vimal Mishra, Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors, Mausam, 70, 2 (April 2019), 233-264.

8. Raju Mandal, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, A. Dey, R. Chattopadhyay and D. R. Pattanaik, Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India, Scientific Reports, 9, online, June 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6.

7. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, R. Mandal, A. Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, (2019) Skill Evaluation of Extended-Range Forecasts of Rainfall and Temperature over the Meteorological Subdivisions of India. Weather and Forecasting. 34:81–101. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055.1

2018

6. S. Abhilash, R. Mandal, A. Dey, R. Phani, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, S. De, N. K. Agarwal, A. K. Sahai, S. Sunitha Devi & M. Rajeevan (2018), Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, 1-12

5. Saranya Ganesh S, Abhilash S, A.K. Sahai, Susmitha Joseph, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey, R. Phani (2018) Genesis and track prediction of pre‑monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi‑model ensemble framework. Natural Hazards. 95:823–843. doi: 10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6

4. Avijit Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai, R. Mandal, S. Joseph, R. Phani, S. Abhilash (2018), An Operational Tracking Method for the MJO Using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions. Pure and Applied Geophysics doi: 10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8

3. Ganesh S.S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Dey A., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., A New Approach to Improve the Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, April 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 1-9

2016

2. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, M. Rajeevan, R. Mandal, A. Dey, N. Borah and R. Phani (2016) Extremes in June rainfall during the Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational analysis and extended range prediction, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 1276–1289, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730

2015

1. A. K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, R. Mandal, A. Dey, S. Abhilash, R. P. M. Krishna and N. Borah (2015) Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble-based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2, Current Science, Vol. 109, No. 10, 1802-1813.

Research Report Published

8. Manpreet Kaur, R Phani, Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, R. Mandal, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay (2019) Bias-Correction and Dynamical Downscaling Strategy to Improve the Prediction of Extreme Weather Events on Extended Range, IITM Research Report, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2019)/196

7. Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, A. Dey, R. Mandal and Aparnna Ravi P. (2018) On the dynamics of extended breaks during 2017 monsoon, IITM Research Report, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/05(2018)/194

6. Rajib Chattopadhyay, R. Phani Murali Krishna, Susmitha Joseph, Avijit Dey, Raju Mandal and A.K. Sahai (2018) A Comparison of Extended-Range Prediction of Monsoon in the IITM-CFSv2 with ECMWF S2S Forecast System, IITM Research Report, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2018)/190

5. Susmitha Joseph, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay (2018) Diagnostics and Real-Time Extended Range Prediction of Heat Waves over India, IITM Research Report, ISSN 0252-1075ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/03(2018)/192

4. Joseph Susmitha, Sahai A.K., Phani R., Mandal Raju, Dey A., Chattopadhyay Rajib (2017) Evaluation of Extended Range Forecast Skill on Subdivisional Scale over India, IITM Research Report, ISSN 0252-1075ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2017)/188

3. D. R. Pattanaik, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey , R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Shibin Balakrishnan and A. K. Sahai (2017) Performance of real time extended range forecast during southwest monsoon 2016, IMD Met Monograph: No. : ESSO/IMD/Synoptic Met./01(2017)/21

2. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay Rajib, Dey Avijit, Joseph Susmitha, Abhilash S., Phani M., Mandal Raju, Rajeevan M.N. and Hendon H (2016) MJO Diagnostics for Extended Range Prediction and simulation in IITM CFSv2, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/02(2016)/187

1. Abhilash S., Raju M., Avijit D., R. Phani, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai and M. Rajeevan (2015) A Research Report on the 2015 Southwest Monsoon: Chapter 5: Performance of the Extended Range Prediction System During 2015 Monsoon Season, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/02(2015)/185

Students List:

PhD Scholars:

Sr. No.	Name of the Student	Institute/ University	Title of Thesis/Dissertation	Year
1	Mr. Ajith baby	Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU)	Western Disturbances over India: variability and subseasonal prediction	2025 (ongoing) Co guide: Dr. Susmitha Joseph

Postgraduate Students:

Sr. No.	Name of the Student	Degree	Institute/ University	Title of Thesis/Dissertation	Year
1	Ms. Reba Halder	M. Tech in Atmospheric Sciences	Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU)	Intra-seasonal fluctuation and its prediction during Indian Summer Monsoon 2023	2024-2025
2	Ms. Rasiga P.V.	M.Sc. in Environmental Science	Kannur University	Cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean and its Association with MJO Phase	2023

आईआईटीएम
IITM

भारतीय उष्णदेशीय मौसम विज्ञान संस्थान
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Avijit Dey

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: (020) 25904546 (O)

Fax

: (020) 25865142

Email ID

: avijit[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Research Highlight

Scientist Profile

Dr. Avijit Dey

Designation : Scientist E

Phone : (020) 25904546 (O)

Fax : (020) 25865142

Email ID : avijit[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Research Highlight

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: (020) 25904546 (O)

Fax

: (020) 25865142

Email ID

: avijit[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in